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OWOE - Blog
We Are Our Own Worst Enemies
August 20, 2024

Guest blog by S. A. Shelley: When it comes to energy matters, as in all matters that affect our health or fiscal wellbeing, we tend to be our own worst enemies. There are two components to the global warming surge:  greenhouse gases, which insulate the planet and prevent heat energy from radiating into space, and heat exhaust generated by human activity. The latter is often overlooked and forgotten by most people but is just as critical a factor in global warming. We wrote a blog a few years back highlighting the thermal inefficiency of internal combustion engines (ICEs) which on aggregate pump out a heck of a lot of waste thermal energy compared to their transport energy use (Throwing Away 3 of every 4 Gallons of Gasoline Bought). This is one area in which electric vehicles (EVs) crush ICEs:  EVs use a much greater proportion of their energy to move people and stuff and emit far, far less waste thermal energy. Point to EVs. But there is a myriad of other personal choices that people can make today, without switching to EVs, that will on aggregate reduce the rate of global warming.

For one thing, individually and collectively, we need to stop doing dumb things. On a recent tour of Calgary during a heat dome (heat wave) when local temperatures approached recorded maximums for an extended period, l observed several dumb activities. In Fig. 1, there can be seen several propane fueled fires burning as decorative night lights.

Fig. 1 - Decorative Fires Burning during a Heat Wave

Any person with a modicum of chemistry knowledge can calculate how many joules of heat energy were pumped into the environment on that already overheated evening. On a single basis this probably doesn't have a butterfly effect on the environment. But then in Fig. 2, we see a lovely dining spot in Calgary in which at lunch time, some diners are cooled by big fans, while decorative fires burn elsewhere.

Fig. 2 - Lunch with Ambiance Fires

Now I started to wonder why, during a heat wave, people, in this case restaurants and hotels, were burning decorative fires. What sense did it make to pump more heat into an already overheated world?

It gets worse. On this trip to Calgary, I toured a couple of new residential tenement buildings. In each building, there was a natural gas fireplace burning away quietly in the main lobby. I asked one building manager why she thought it necessary to burn a fireplace during a heat wave. She replied, "Some of our tenants feel chilled by the AC, so they like to sit by the fire." Perhaps a better option would have been to turn down the AC a bit and stop pumping more heat into an already hot environment?

It's not just a Calgary thing. Fig. 3, shows the "River of Fire" festival in Providence this weekend.

Fig. 3 - Fun Fires on the River in Providence, Rhode Island

This bane of unnecessary waste heat extends beyond places trying to look fancy or in vogue. It extends into the realm of big trucks, the kind that adle-brained noodniks (Canadianism for rednecks) love to drive while "rolling coal" to impress other noodniks (EPA Finds Rolling Coal Is Making Pollution Worse in America).

It extends to one garbage truck per second hauling yesterday's fast fashion to a landfill or incinerator. (These are the economic, social and environmental impacts of fast fashion).

And it especially extends to prince of privilege Prime Ministers who jet hither and dither from a fire in Jasper on the west side of the continent one day (Prime Minister Justin Trudeau meets with Jasper fire evacuees) to a sporting regatta in Newfoundland on the other side of the continent the next day. (Trudeau's Regatta Day appearance). Vanity knows no bounds with some people it seems.

Greenhouse gas emissions are measurable and hence the fight to curb those. Human vanity is broad and immeasurable but just as damaging to our world, and we haven't yet paid enough attention to fixing that.

Vive l'Alberta Libre!

In Memoriam, Mom.

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A Short List of People Who Can Bite My Shiny Metal Ass*
July 11, 2024

Guest blog by S. A. Shelley: As is usual every spring, many large entities ranging from super major oil producers to large Wall Street firms and global organizations release annual energy statistics, reports and forecasts about the world's energy state. Invariably discussed are subjects like energy mix, demand or supply projections. Often these entities will venture into discussing oil prices and associated forecasts. All those entities have big research budgets and teams of analysts, statisticians and economists pouring over mountains of data. However, even with all those highly paid personnel, and I suspect some added AI, those big entities are at best equal to the analysis undertaken by OWOE staffers, but more often than not, much worse. Apparently, nobody can beat curiosity, whisky and voodoo.

Take the IEA for example and their 2024 Oil demand supply forecast published last month (Oil 2024 – Analysis - IEA ). Up front in the Executive Summary, the analysts boldly write:

Divergent regional economic trajectories and the accelerating deployment of clean and energy-saving technologies are combining to progressively slow the pace of oil demand growth, with a plateau emerging in the final years of our forecast, which runs to 2030.

Compare this to what OWOE analysts humbly wrote in a blog in 2021:

To reiterate, the decline in old demand growth is in response to changes in energy consumption, improvements in energy efficiency and the arrival of new technology that displace oil consumption.

The analysts at IEA can bite my shiny metal ass.

According to researchers at the Bank of America, oil demand is on the rocks. I have not yet found a copy of that Bank of America report, and I welcome any reader to send me a link. Instead, I have to rely upon second-hand reporting but I have faith that the journalists at the Financial Post and Reuters are credible. Continuing with the matter at hand, those same Bank of America analysts concluded that the drop in oil demand would be met by price increases instead of the expected decreases .

Bank of America (BofA) Global Research has raised its 2024 Brent and WTI oil price forecasts, citing escalating geopolitical tensions and the OPEC+ producer group maintaining supply curbs.

Newsflash BoA strategists, I commented about oil suppliers maximizing their best interests and thus potentially flooding oil markets in that same blog in 2021.

Even if demand improves a bit this year, be ready for another oil price downturn as the excess supply available is still much greater than any demand increase that I foresee.  (Oops, I just forecast oil price, which when I started blogging, I promised to never do.)

Others also noted in June that oil prices are sluggish and weak, again because of geopolitical risk and slowing demand growth. Geopolitical risk be damned; we commented on demand sluggishness a few years ago. I raise my cup to the Bank of America strategists as they can also bite my shiny metal ass.

Even the oft cited analysts over at Rystad often get their oil forecasts wrong or late. Rystad Predicts Near Zero Oil Supply Growth in 2024. We discussed this in a series of blogs in 2019 (The Great Oil Slump of the 2020s – Part 1, SupplyThe Great Oil Slump of the 2020s – Part 2b, Demand and Technology) .  The much anticipated annual global energy outlook by BP confirms the much earlier forecasts by OWOE analysts on everything from peak oil demand to rapidly accelerating supply of renewables. Again, with all due respect, the analysts at Rystad and BP can bite my shiny metal ass.

And please don't get me started about the analysts at Exxon, the World Bank or worst of all the federal government and most of the provincial and municipal governments in Canada.  In Canada it seems that ranging between extreme cold in winter and heat waves in summer has snapped the last synapses of the government officials and their high-level bureaucrats. Panic mode is never a good idea. Perpetual panic mode is worse.

Surely with all those incorrect and late forecasts bantered about by heavyweight firms and organizations something must be wrong with the data? No, it's not the data, it's the broad observations and multi-layered connections that most of these very well paid analysts overlook. Many decades ago,  historian James Burke had a series on BBC about "Connections".  In the BBC series, he discusses the often-overlooked manner in which change in one technology can profoundly impact another technology in an unforeseeable manner. We alluded to such impacts in our blog about the "Cobra Effect". Highly paid analysts have a very narrow mindset, oft succumbing to herding influences, and thus miss the novel connections that are reshaping our world. At OWOE, we ponder wide scopes and wonder how interconnections can play out.

Consequently, most of those over paid analysts and strategists can't keep up to the volunteer OWOE staffers.

As always,

Shut down Line 5 and Vive l'Alberta libre

*With most gracious thanks to Bender, of Futurama, for this phrase.

In Memoriam, Ubo  2012 to 2024

Figure 1 - Ubo

On Saturday, June 29, Ubo, the faithful bike companion of this blogger was stolen in Houston. Ubo was a 21-gear road churning fun machine. He was the best wing man when I pulled up to chat with pretty women in convertible Ferraris or Porsches. Ubo got me through storms of all kind. It didn't matter if it was tropical rains or freezing ice storms, we often went where no cars or trucks could follow.  In 12 years we were only hit twice and every year he kept me above the snakes in the road (of which there are too many in Houston in spring). Ubo is deeply missed.

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Natural Gas is God’s Gift to Humanity
June 11, 2024

Guest blog by S. A. Shelley: OK, another inciteful blog but that's the OWOE writing team's style, gleefully stoking controversy.

The term "fossil fuels" is one of the greatest marketing triumphs that the environmentalists ever adopted. "Fossil" suggests old and outdated, coming from some pre-historic, ancient, way-back, long-ago-dead biologic entities. The uses for fossil fuels also reflect "old" technologies, cooking, training and steam shipping (Fig. 1).

Fig. 1 Using Fossil Fuels from Ancient (left) to Modern Times (right)

Coal is definitely a fossil fuel and you can’t dig in a coal bed without digging up fossils of plants and animals. Oil maybe, but the abiotic origins of oil are just as likely as the biologic synthesis theories. However natural gas (methane) is very unlikely a fossil fuel. In our solar system, we have big planets and moons with significant amounts of methane comprising their atmospheres. Methane is quite common in our solar system and probably the universe. It is quite possible that impact events in the Hadrean or Archean eras could have deposited methane onto the earth.   

Why then is methane labelled a fossil fuel?  For one, methane results from certain biochemical processes. Secondly, methane arises during the decay of organic matter and coal beds often have pockets of methane associated with them. Thus, if coal is fossil fuel, then so too must be the associated methane. Grade school reasoning at its best. Yet a lot of methane also arises naturally in the coldness of space. Finally, in terms of energy transition and climate change arguments it helps if methane is lumped together with those other dirty fuels. Remember however, that compared to coal, burning methane to generate power releases 40% less CO2 emissions than coal per MWh generated. Blend about 10% hydrogen into the natural gas mix, something that can be done using existing gas pipelines and infrastructure and you’ll achieve another 5% reduction in carbon emissions per MWh generated. Doable, right?

But that's the problem with a lot of politicians and ideologues on both sides of any argument. The goal now is to label something or someone as abhorrent and then run with it. Oppose my ideology, then you are a (pick one): Marxist, Fascist, idiot or patriarchal knuckle dragger. With the intense rhetoric tossed about it becomes nearly impossible then to reason for sensible steps that will move civilization towards a low carbon future. It is, by most politicians, more important to manufacture total consent and quash any dissent than it is to implement truly progressive solutions.

Natural gas is a part of the problem of carbon emissions, but it is also a very important step towards the solution of reducing carbon emissions. Kudos to the Philippines for choosing to build out gas infrastructure including LNG (  Energy Tracker  ;  AP News  ) instead of turning to the much more abundant coal from nearby Australia. Natural gas is the perfect two-sided coin to stoke outbursts from both sides of the energy and environment battle: But this is my position and I’ll stand by it even if I have to slap every Federal Liberal cabinet minister in Ottawa : Stop increasing coal exports (Canada’s coal exports up again in 2023 as government’s promised ban elusive | Globalnews.ca ) and start increasing natural gas exports to displace coal everywhere possible. Then shut down Line 5.

Vive l'Alberta Libre!

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There Are Some Good Government Entities
June 2, 2024

Guest blog by S. A. Shelley: The U.S. Federal Government is a huge organization that is staffed by some very bright people. There are also nearly 1,000 advisory committees in Washington, comprising leaders from industry, science and the arts. For the most part, the advisory committees concern themselves with publicly available information and have public meetings, but there are a few which require security clearance and concern themselves with confidential matters of state. These advisory committees are a valuable resource upon which the Federal Government can call to review policies and assist with formulating strategies.

Full disclosure, I was honoured to have been appointed to and serve on the 7th Charter of the Department of Commerce Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Committee (REEEAC). The charter for REEEAC 7 ended last week and its several important recommendations were warmly received by the U.S. government (you may contact OWOE for a full copy of the article). Follow this link to see the publicly available recommendations.

Two big concerns that are addressed by these recommendations are how to accelerate America's energy transition while also reducing America's reliance upon importing critical materials and components from places like China. It is no secret that, globally, China is the vampire squid with its economic tentacles in everything. Traditional products? They've got components from China. Renewable energy technology? China dominates in all critical areas (see OilPrice.com and Reuters). If one buys medicines from India, a pharmaceutical production powerhouse, base compounds come from China. The propellant charges used in European artillery shells that Europe supplies to Ukraine come from China (see also the aside).  How on earth did the West, lands of independent judiciaries, democracy, and a free press, hang themselves to be dependent upon authoritarian states?

This dependency situation might seem hopeless, but it's not. Awareness of the issue has been rising in the EU, in America, and in America's Asian friends, and definitive steps are now being undertaken across several domains to do something. Furthermore, I am very optimistic in general about the West’s ability to innovate and trade its way out of this energy bind. Given enough time, we'll lead the world in the next generation of clean energy technology. But the question now is, how much time do we have?

Vive l'Alberta libre

ASIDE:  On a recent trip overseas that coincided with a port call by a US carrier battle group, I had the opportunity to share a few beverages with a couple of the carrier's crew. The conversation was revealing, and I am now of the opinion that China does not need to continue with its massive shipbuilding programme to ensure a victory against the US navy in a future war: China just needs to wait 10 years until the bulk of the US battle fleet is in port waiting for critical maintenance.

ASIDE 2: Readers have complained to the OWOE editor that I bash Canada too often. Well, take at look at the following photo (Fig 1). This is a senior care home in Calgary that was built using municipal government funds and management. The care home has working gates, but no fence.

Fig. 1 - Senior Care Facility - gates but no fences

That's the state of Canada. (Note: readers who defend Canada may be suffering from zombie memories.)

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Interesting Energy Stories You May Have Missed
April 1, 2024

Guest blog by Manny Topiques Here are some interesting and somewhat offbeat energy stories that haven't gotten much media attention over the past year.

Is coal the new future for clean energy? In an amazing new discovery just announced by NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration), the Perseverance Rover discovered an outcropping of high quality space coal not far from the spacecraft's 2021 landing site. Using its rotary percussive coring drill, the rover was able to penetrate approximate 6 meters below the planet's surface to confirm that this outcropping was the surface exposure of a large deposit of anthracite space coal. Further exploration on future missions will be required to determine if this deposit is native to Mars or the remains of a meteor that impacted the surface in the distant past.

If native, it creates an incredible opportunity to solve the problem of global warming. Dr. Paullie Yanna of NASA's John F. Kennedy Space Energy Center explained: "I believe that the entire subsurface of Mars consists of coal or coal-type substances. The ancient oceans which covered almost the entire surface of the planet would have been ideal grounds for decomposition of Martian biologics as the planet lost its atmosphere. The oceans would have slowly transitioned into swamps and then finally the deserts that cover Mars today, leaving huge deposits of space coal." When asked what was being done with this new information, Dr. Yanna excitedly explained how she is working with a digital coal company in West Virginia and a high-tech startup in California. The coal company was developing a coal burning process that would work without requiring oxygen in the atmosphere. The greatest part was that with no atmosphere all the particulate pollution, noxious gasses, and carbon dioxide could be discharged directly with no pollution control equipment. The California start-up is working on implementation of NASA's power beaming concept to beam energy directly from outer space to earth. Unlimited energy with no concern over pollutants - the holy grail of politicians, environmentalists, and the coal industry.

Scientists Discover How to Make Energy from Air In Australia, scientists have discovered an enzyme (called Huc) from a bacterium that converts atmospheric hydrogen into energy. The discovery was somewhat unanticipated, but now researchers are examining other biological organisms and associated enzymes that could also provide additional energy utility. It may not be green, but slimy, wiggly and fungy is still good for the earth. Atmospheric energy sources could then be coupled with metal-air batteries to produce a truly robust and clean energy grid.

Earth's Axis is Tilting As was reported last year by OWOE Staff, wind turbines are accelerating the earth's rotational speed. Since then, it has been discovered that the human activity of pumping ground water form aquifers is shifting the earth's axis. OWOE staff aren't sure if this is a problem requiring a solution, but just in case, OWOE has been awarded a research grant to train hordes of blah blah bunnies to run in certain directions in order to both correct the axis shift and the earth's rotational speed. OWOE staff have the bunny speeds properly calibrated but still need to work on the directionality.

Reducing Global Warming by Cooling the Sun Numerous academics have proposed that it could be possible to cool the earth by spraying aerosols and fine particulate matter into the upper atmosphere in order to reflect more sunlight away from the earth (see sciencealert.com and scientificamerican.com). Alternatively, some scientists have proposed deploying a large, space based parasol to shade the earth. However, Dr. Shirley Yurnutz, lead researcher at the Society for Protecting the Earth through Cooling, Transformation, Reduction and Engineering (SPECTRE) and her team have proposed that a lower cost and more effective means to cooling the earth would be to re-engineer the sun. Dr. Yurnutz's team proposes to bombard the sun with iron atoms to reduce the heat output at the source. Her team has calculated that cooling the sun could be very effective for a long duration with only a few rocket launches. Other researchers at MIT, Caltech and similar, when contacted for comment, were too busy trying to book inter-stellar space on future X-Space launches.

Dippity Doo, Vintage Bar Novelty Could be another Clean Energy Source The evaporation effect that powers the classic drinking birds has now been coupled to a triboelectric nanogenerator to produce a 100 V potential operating for 50 hours continuously. This is small, but researchers believe that the technology is scalable and could be used to complement future solar and wind-based grids to provide power when the sun isn't shining and the wind isn't blowing. Larger scale prototypes have already been installed in some municipalities (see Dunking Bird Statues in front of Calgary Central Public Library) and results have been promising.

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Ossification
March 19, 2024

Guest blog by S. A. Shelley: Change is inevitable unless you're well established. There is a reason why empires are lost to history, governments are overthrown, businesses collapse, and academia becomes irrelevant. The established organizations or systems could not change fast enough to respond to imminent threats, emerging technologies or changes in consumer habits.  When faced with such challenges established systems, especially governments, harden themselves. In extreme cases you end up with kingdoms such as North Korea. But in most cases, you end up with economically declining and socially irrelevant states like Canada. It is a problem of ossification of thought, of edicts being churned out ever more frequently with worse effects. It applies to everything from healthcare and education to defense and energy policy.

With regards to energy policy, a great example of ossification is the California government's unyielding desire to have massive floating offshore wind farms to power the state. California has numerous times proclaimed a goal of 5 GW installed by 2030. If you read the press releases of every government person in California from municipal to state level, it is all golden sunshine, and beach walks to clean energy. But this is fanciful group thinking influenced very much by a very small group of wind energy business interests.

As we have noted in a prior blog (see OWOE: California Does Not Need Big, Very Expensive Floating Offshore Wind Farms), California doesn't need big offshore wind farms to become a clean and green energy state: California politicians want it but California doesn't need it. Governments always want: They want your taxes so that they can make equitable distributions. They want you to only use approved language. On and on. And in California, the government wants you to pay dearly to develop an industry that California doesn't need and for which California is ill suited to develop. Yes there are a lot of good offshore wind resources in California, but no there is not enough industrial infrastructure available and probably not enough state funding subsidies to support California's big wind dreams (see CalMatters: 'A massive enterprise': California offshore wind farms are on fast track).

Amounts between $20 to $30 billion dollars are bantered about (see NREL: What Will It Take To Unlock U.S. Floating Offshore Wind Energy? and RechargeNews: US West Coast needs $30bn for ports and supply chain to unlock 55GW of floating wind: study) to build-out some California ports just to support the deployment of the wind platforms. This cost does not include one single floating wind unit and is just the cost to "prepare" for the first floating wind unit. Remembering how frequently government projects overrun costs, to be safe, I would estimate that such infrastructure build-out costs to be at least double, between $40 to $60 billion.

Is there a better way to spend $20 billion in California on green energy? Of course, but it’s not politically in vogue. The average cost of a 5kW solar residential installation in California is about $15,000. Let's add another $10,000 for the residential battery system to help address the issues surrounding grid capacity management caused by solar power (see OWOE: What is the duck curve?). Doing some arithmetic, that means that by purchasing about 800,000 residential solar installations for $20 billion the state of California could supply about 4 GW of rated capacity for the same amount that the state and federal governments are willing to spend to just get California’s infrastructure to prepare for offshore wind farms. As an added bonus, solar panel efficiency is improving, and battery storage is getting cheaper, while offshore wind turbines are only getting larger and more problematic to install and operate. So why would anyone want to go offshore when onshore solar power is a cheaper and bigger choice?

California is blessed with abundant solar power potential, and there are still many, many ways that this power potential has yet to be developed, at less cost and with less environmental disruption than going offshore with huge wind farms. The Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) projects that California is on track to install another 19 GW rated solar power in the next five years. Again, this can be achieved without the expensive infrastructure build-outs required to get just 5 GW rated floating offshore wind power by 2030.

Consequently, once a politician's or the political class mind is set, ossified, then a lot of consultant dollars will be spent to convince the populace of the infallibility of the politicians, the state board, the consultants or whatever (see postscript, below). There are better, more equitably distributed and green alternatives to offshore wind in California, it's just that the politicians can no longer see nor comprehend those solutions.

This happens across a lot of jurisdictions. California does not have the industry nor the infrastructure space to support offshore wind farms, but the politicians want it. Conversely, Texas has the industry and the infrastructure space for offshore wind farms, but the politicians don’t want it.

The populace needs cheap and reliable energy and green energy can be a big supply for that. But the way that politicians are going about forcing green energy on people is most often the wrong way and we’ll all suffer for it. Unfortunately, once ossification sets in, it becomes very difficult to change the mindset.

Vive l'Alberta Libre

Vive la libre pensee!

Postscript: A great example of ossification and politicians trying to influence voters is in Calgary, Canada. There, the last two municipal governments have decided on a new transit line, the Green Line. The politicians picked the most expensive option available and hired one of the most inept and corrupt major engineering firms to manage the project. Subsequently, many citizens of Calgary began questioning the Green Line decision. The mayor and city council have started fighting back ("How dare you …question our magnificence?") by instigating a massive public information campaign comprising of such statements as "90% of Calgarians agree that the Green Line is needed and will benefit the city!". Or, and this is one of my personal favourites, "The Green Line Board and Executive Committee is comprised of highly experienced and knowledgeable people." So too was Long Term Capital Management before it almost crashed the economy in 1998. These pronouncements by Calgary city staff are meant to nudge group harmony (see also the Fraser Institute: The dangers of nudging—the use of state coercion to affect behaviour). But what the Calgary city politicians omit is that 85% of Calgarians question why the city chose the most expensive option and hired the most corrupt firm. In Calgary, the city council can't even install picnic benches properly in a park.

Calgary picnic benches

Why then should people believe that the city council can wisely decide and effectively manage an uber expensive multi-year infrastructure project?

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T’Was the Night before Separation
December 6, 2023

T’was the night before separation when all through the Land
The Liberals were dancing, excessive tax revenues in hand.
While the stockings of residents, homeless or not
Were filled with inflation and expenses that came from dumb Liberal thought.


The homeless were nestled where they put their heads
While visions of affordable housing danced in their heads.
And Granny in Cape Breton, her home heated not,
Cursed feebly at Ottawa for the heat pump they brought.



While out across Rideau there arose such a clatter
As the PM and his cabinet partied over the matters.
Said Justin “Carbon taxes have filled our coffers,”
Replied his mistress, “Let’s spend it saving the otters.”

Freeland hushed all as she quietly said,
“Our coffers are overflowing, not from EVs,
Nor digital, nor Carbon, nor Fintech,
But thank the Saudis and Russkies for the price of
Western Canada Select.”


The group then doth protested
With Guilbeault proclaiming while hugging a tree,
“Damn the West and freeze the banks.
We must bring them to their knees!”

He continued, “Justin, please hop on a plane,
Go look and report why oil revenue is giving such support.
Make one trip then two, then maybe four
But go fly about, look into it more.”


Trudeau put down his bottled water,
And his plate loaded with beef.
“I will go fly often and make many a speech,
Proclaim carbon a problem, then plastics, then meat.”

“I’ll unify our natives then sneak off to surf,
But most importantly I will embarrass our allies and
Invite our enemies
To make Canada worse.”

From New York a Butts with privileged contract in hand,
Stood on his sandals as he pronounced,
“Canada doesn’t work for them, it works for us,
With lifelong contracts, appointments, pensions so much.”

“We will not get coal from Santa, for we have plenty in Vancouver Port
And we’ll steal power from Labrador and sell it full price to New York.
There is much work for us, we need not fear,
That the common folks will work one, two jobs or three.”

On Freeland, on Guilbeault, on Butts and Joli
On Justin and Chretien and the old Liberal guard
On guard against the west,
Who’s work ethic and values they fear.
Joyeux Noël à tous et vive l’Ouest libre!

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Big Oil Is the New Big Tobacco
October 25, 2023

OWOE has pointed out similarities between today's Big Oil and last millennium's Big Tobacco several times over the years. In September 2022 we published "Don’t Blame the Suppliers, Unless They Are Big Oil" where we shared articles documenting the efforts of the fossil fuel companies to engage in a public relations campaign to sow doubt in the science of climate change by following the playbook of the tobacco industry. And in August 2023 we published "Big Oil Stuns Again" where we addressed the greenwashing that the oil companies are currently engaged in and speculated that Big Oil's lack of civic responsibility might become legal liabilities in the future, similar to what happened with the tobacco industry. Recent events have made it even more clear that, yes, Big Oil is following in the footsteps of Big Tobacco and is likely to meet a similar fate.

Figure 1 – Worldwide Climate Litigation Against Oil Companies Early 2021 (source: The Rise of Climate Litigation)

There has been a significant and rapidly growing number of lawsuits around the world involving climate litigation against the oil companies (see Fig 1) with a growing focus on climate disclosures and greenwashing. However, this year in particular has seen a number of significant actions from states, countries, and the public, including a key ruling by the US Supreme Court:

  • In April the US Supreme Court denied a petition (see State of Rhode Island and Sierra Club) that would have moved a case filed in 2018 by the State of Rhode Island and four other related cases to federal court. The suits attempt to hold a number of fossil fuel companies liable for knowingly concealing the fact that use of their products leads to climate change and catastrophic consequences to people, economies, ecosystems, and infrastructure. Rhode Island is one of more than two dozen states, counties, and cities that have brought forth similar lawsuits. This was a very damaging result for the oil companies who expect to receive more favorable consideration from federal courts.
  • In August a judge in Montana ruled that that state is violating the rights of young people with its policies that prohibit consideration of climate change effects when it reviews coal mining, natural gas extraction and other fossil fuel projects. This was the first youth-led climate case to reach trial in the US and could influence similar cases nationwide.
  • In September the California Legislature passed a bill that would require major companies to publicly disclose their greenhouse gas emissions. The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has been working on similar regulations at the national level but have gotten strong objections from industry. As the world’s fifth-largest economy, California often sets the trend for the nation with regard to environmental regulations and will likely accelerate the national effort. In early October California Governor Gavin Newsom signed the bill.
  • Also in September six young people from areas in Portugal ravaged by wildfires and heatwaves filed a lawsuit against 27 EU member states as well as Britain, Switzerland, Norway, Russia and Turkey alleging that their failure to act fast enough on climate change is a violation of their human rights. It is the largest climate case ever to be heard by the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR). A ruling is expected in the first half of 2024.
  • Also in September a lawsuit was filed on behalf of the people of California against ExxonMobil, Shell, BP, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, and the American Petroleum Institute (API) claiming that, starting in the 1950s, they intentionally downplayed the risks posed by fossil fuels to the public, even though they understood that their products were likely to lead to significant global warming.

The current situation regarding Big Oil lawsuits appears to mirror the history of Big Tobacco lawsuits going back almost 70 years. The first wave of tobacco lawsuits in the 1950s attempted to link cigarette smoking to cancer, and the tobacco companies prevailed in all of them. In the 1980s a second wave accused the tobacco companies of knowing that cigarettes were addictive and caused cancer but did not warn the public. Most of those lawsuits, but not all, were won by Big Tobacco. Then in the 1990s plaintiffs began winning these lawsuits when cigarette company documents were leaked showing the companies were aware of the addictive nature of tobacco.

Another interesting parallel involves Big Oil's drive to increase the use of plastics and other petrochemicals, which currently account for as much as 12% of fossil fuel use. A 2020 documentary presented on NPR found evidence that Big Oil believed that plastic recycling could never be made economical yet spent tens of millions of dollars on advertising to sell the public on the idea that the majority of plastic could be, and would be, recycled. As a result, plastic production has been growing about 5% annually, yet under 10% of the plastic produced is recycled. Compare this to the University of Kansas study published also this past September that uncovered that the chemically addictive fatty, salty and sweet foods that make up 68% of the American food supply were developed and marketed by tobacco companies when they owned some of the largest food companies in the world including Nabisco and Kraft-General Foods.

Despite all the parallels, there is one big difference between Big Oil and Big Tobacco. At the height of use in 1965, approximately 50 million Americans over the age of 18 smoked tobacco products or approximately 1/3rd of the adult population. Thus, 2/3rds of the adults in the US did not smoke. As the health effects of smoking became known, public opinion within the non-smoking population and peer pressure on smokers helped drive the anti-smoking health campaign. In contrast, today, essentially 100% of the US population is addicted to fossil fuel. Even those of us who have embraced electric vehicles (EVs), your author included, are dependent on fossil fuel. Air travel, heating, cooking, plastics, consumer products, clothing…virtually every aspect of daily life is tied to fossil fuel products. So, yes, OWOE sees Big Oil as the new Big Tobacco, but the path toward breaking our addiction is much less clear.

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Big Oil Stuns Again
August 15, 2023

Bill Luyties, OWOE Technical Editor: There is no doubt that the world needs oil and will continue to need it for some time while the transition to renewable energy plays out. There is also little doubt that that burning of fossil fuels and associated carbon dioxide release into the atmosphere have contributed greatly to the current crisis that is global warming (see 97% of active climate scientists agree). Examples of the impact on the world's climate are all around us - from the record-breaking temperatures around the world, to the forest fires in Canada, California, Spain, Greece, and Hawaii, to the melting glaciers in the Arctic and Antarctic and rapidly rising sea levels. So, where does Big Oil fit into this ongoing transition? The last several years have seen Big Oil, which has been the source of much of the public misinformation about climate change, pushing the narrative that they will be part of the solution. How is that going?

Figure 1: Big Oil Greenwashing

In December 2022 the US House of Representatives Committee on Oversight and Accountability issued a report (since deleted) documenting how Big Oil companies are "greenwashing" with claims that they embrace clean energy even though behind closed doors they dismiss the effort and plan to continue fossil fuel investments. And Figure 1 shows a comparison by DW (Deutsche Welle) from 2021 of Big Oil's public messaging containing green claims versus the percentage of capital expenditures within their total yearly budgets. Chevron, ExxonMobil, and Shell are relatively similar in their efforts to greenwash the public.

Let's look more closely at Shell Oil Company, a company that I spent 30 years working for at the start of my career. I can't deny that those were some of the best years of my career working on cutting-edge technology and projects to develop deepwater oil and gas reserves around the world. But the world has changed dramatically in the years since I left Shell as the impact of burning fossil fuels has become better understood, and the early fears of "climate alarmists" have become a sobering reality. For a while I believed that companies like Shell were making progress towards reducing greenhouse gas emissions and funding and developing green energy technology.

In 2021 Shell surprised activists and investors by committing to a number of steps in the short term to reduce its carbon footprint for the production of oil, and in the longer term to embrace green energy. Under the leadership of former CEO, Ben van Beurden, Shell announced its target "to become a net-zero emissions energy business by 2050, in step with society's progress in achieving the goal of the UN Paris Agreement on climate change". This included reducing emissions from operations and from the fuels and other energy products they sell to their customers as well as capturing and storing any remaining emissions or balancing them with offsets. It also included transforming the business by providing low-carbon energy such as charging for electric vehicles, hydrogen and electricity generated by solar and wind power. And then, Van Beurden was replaced at the beginning of 2023 by Wael Sawan, who had been the director of integrated gas, renewables and energy solutions. To much of the outside world, the choice signaled that Shell was not just moving forward but taking a leading role in the energy transition.

My was that wrong!

Within 6 months of taking office, Sawan announced a scaling back of its targets to reduce its carbon footprint, a shift back to focus on oil and gas production, a paring back of investments in renewables, and a reorganization to eliminate any global focus on renewables. This was driven by shareholder pressure to focus on oil and gas as the most profitable businesses. Shareholder income would be sharply increased, capital expenditure would be reduced, and money saved would be used to buy back stock shares.

Even before this abrupt change, Climate Action 100+, an investor-led initiative to ensure the world's largest corporate greenhouse gas emitters take necessary action on climate change, rated 171 companies that are key to driving the global net zero emissions transition. Based on publicly disclosed information as of May 2022, Shell was given a mixed review. However, one area in particular, Item 6.1, Capital Alignment - The company is working to decarbonize its capital expenditures - was scored as "No, does not meet any criteria". Essentially, the company talked a good game but was making no effort to align its capital spending to what it was telling the world.

Shell and the rest of the Big Oil fraternity have neither acknowledged their role in climate change nor taken any meaningful steps to play a part in the solution. Their almost single-minded focus is on continuing to produce oil and gas, which they believe will make the most money in the short term. It does not matter how that will impact the planet and its eight billion people and what that cost to society will be. And it shows absolutely no vision regarding how an energy company might survive and even thrive in a fossil-free world. One can't help but wonder about the parallels with the tobacco industry and whether Big Oil's lack of responsibility will become legal liabilities in the future.

Once again, Big Oil stuns with its lack of vision and hypocrisy.


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If the Oil Sands Were in Quebec, Canada Would Be Outproducing Saudi Arabia
July 28, 2023

Guest blog by S. A. Shelley: There are a lot of peculiarities about Canada that foreigners do not understand and residents shamefully ignore. For one, Canada is one of the biggest money laundering countries in the world.  Ask any person on the street about the dangers of corruption and he or she will point to places overseas, oblivious to the extensive graft in Canada. Graft and corruption exist at every government level and in every region of Canada. But the governments choose to overlook these things. Coupled with outright incompetence, Canada does not look good for common folks striving to make a better life.

With respect to ignoring corruption, a good example is in British Columbia (B.C.). There have been three investigations across two governments, culminating with the Cullen Commission in 2022 which concluded that money laundering in B.C. is a major problem at the casinos and adversely pushes housing prices past affordability for middle class residents.

In terms of incompetence, right after the Pandemic, city councilors in Calgary gleefully and rapidly approved the most expensive light rail transit expansion possible and then, even more quickly, approved a subsidiary of SNC Lavalin to manage the expansion. The Calgary city councilors did not even consider the very bad experience and huge cost overruns that the City of Ottawa had when it selected an SNC Lavalin subsidiary for Ottawa's LRT expansion. In Canada the political class has long since given up doing what's best for Canadians and instead does what's best for the political party and their hired consultants / contractors / retirement firms. Canada is not strong and not free despite the lyrics in its anthem.

Fortunately, Canada is blessed with an abundance of natural resources and to date, the export of those resources has managed to sustain the national economy fairly well. Alberta is home to the world's 4th largest confirmed oil reserves. If we scoot a little bit east to Saskatchewan, Saskatchewan has over 40% of the productive farmland in Canada. Saskatchewan farmers contribute greatly to the world's supply of grains and pulses, and Saskatchewan is also the world's largest producer and exporter of specialty crops such as mustard seed, herbs and spices. In Canada, the renewable energy generated by solar and wind in Alberta and Saskatchewan dwarfs Ontario and Quebec (Fig. 1).

Fig. 1: Installed Renewable Power per Resident (sources: Canada Energy Regulator, Alberta.ca)

An "unfortunate" side effect of Global Warming is that Saskatchewan will be able to produce even more food crops in the future. Side by side then, in Western Canada, you have two global powerhouses of energy and food. What could be wrong with that?

The greatest evil, according to the Federal Liberals and about 70% of the electors in Ontario and about 85% of the electors in Quebec (the East), is Alberta; Saskatchewan is also frequently tainted with Alberta's guilt (the West). Why this enmity? Primarily because the princes of privilege in Ottawa, the Laurentian elites, do not have control over Alberta's vast energy resources and Saskatchewan's vast agriculture resources. Thus, they introduce legislation to cut fertilizer inputs for farmers and fumble about delaying the  building of pipelines to bring substantial Canadian energy resources to global markets. Planned incompetence can be a useful political tool.

While the world's oil economies (Norway, Iraq, Brazil…) strive to produce more oil and gas to supply global demand and earn foreign income for their respective coffers, in Canada the Federal Liberals proclaim the lack of a business case for Canada and try everything possible, short of sending in tanks, to shut down the oil and gas fields. "Zero gas emissions by 2035!"is impossible without collapsing the entire Canadian economy.  "We must cut carbon emissions!" is also impossible as long as Justin Trudeau jets around frivolously

When the previous, Conservative Harper government was in power there were caucus discussions about policies regarding domestic supply management. During such discussions the caucus Members of Parliament (MPs) from the western provinces were told that polling in their ridings indicated that the party stance on certain controversial issues that favored the East would only cost the western MPs a few points in their constituencies. (Sources withheld, somewhat.) Consequently, Canada lost its Wheat Board which supply managed the grains output in the West, but kept the Dairy boards which supply manage milk production in every province though most notably in Quebec and Ontario.

During the first tenure of the JustinTrudeau administration Liberal MPs from New Brunswick and Nova Scotia were told that there would be no way in hell that the Liberal party would approve the Energy East pipeline through Quebec. (Sources withheld again, somewhat.) The Energy East pipeline was meant to carry natural gas from Western Canada to the Atlantic provinces to displace coal from being burned in power plants in Nova Scotia and to start LNG exports to the world.

In both examples, central political party and elitist fancies outweighed the benefits of Canadians: Namely loosening of supply management to reduce consumer prices and displacing carbon intensive coal burning with much lower carbon emitting natural gas while also generating large foreign income.

The cases of outright East bias in Canada are way too numerous to list in this blog, but some unique and bitter examples follow.

  • When the Federal Conservatives sold Atomic Energy Canada Ltd (AECL) to SNC Lavalin for below market value in 2012, by gosh for sure, the Federal Liberals stood up in 2019 to defend SNC from 1 internal corruption charge while ignoring the over 100 foreign corruption charges and convictions.
  • When Montreal port workers went on strike in 2021, it took the Federal Liberal government only 1 day to legislate the workers back. When the Vancouver dockworkers went on strike this year, the Federal government thought for a week before appointing a mediator.
  • During the early days of the pandemic, when a Calgary medical research firm developed a vaccine and asked for federal funding support to rapidly scale vaccine manufacturing, the Federal Liberals instead threw money into Quebec for a facility that never opened and never manufactured one vaccine dose.
  • When the State of Michigan threatened to shut down the environmentally dangerous Line 5 pipeline, the Federal Liberals went on the diplomatic warpath with misinformation proclaiming the necessity of the pipeline to the American Midwest (see OWOE, Bloomberg ).
  • When various government agencies in Washington or corporations on Wall Street aspire to access Canada's vast mineral resources to facilitate and accelerate the clean energy transition, they delude themselves in thinking that any new mine in Canada can be approved quickly enough to matter.

Most recently there have been two significant pronouncements by the federal Liberal government in Canada pertaining to massive subsidies for EV battery plants. The first of these was the Stellantis deal of approximately $15 billion in outright grants to produce EV battery systems in Windsor, Ontario. This was soon joined by the announcement for $13 billion in outright grants to Volkswagen for another EV battery plant in  St. Thomas, Ontario. This amounts to each of Canada's 16 million workers subsidizing about a thousand jobs in the East by around $1750. Here's the funnier thing: Those EV battery plants are intended for production of lithium-ion batteries which are about to be outdated technology.

This is not a new or rare occurrence in Canada for the governments too often throw good money after old technology. In 1832 Canada opened the Rideau Canal between Ottawa (Bytown) and Kingston to support internal trade and defence. in Canada of course the canal froze over half the year, so it was only effective for a few months out of the year. Concurrently around the rest of the world railroads, which can be used year-round, began popping up everywhere.

Canals before trains; lithium-ion before solid state; graft before prosperity.

EVERY Liberal government decision is made on the basis of vote gain / loss to maintain power and to fiscally benefit the East as much as possible. No decision in Canada is made to benefit the general population. That is why talk in Washington about the vast, critical to the energy transition, mineral deposits in Canada is futile as no mine in a Liberal governed Canada will be approved for at least 25 years, not until every vote is analyzed beforehand and not unless it fills the pockets of the princes of privilege. EVERY Federal government decision is made on how to best protect the parliamentary seats in Ontario and Quebec. If Ontario had the agricultural potential of Saskatchewan, Ottawa would not be pressuring farms to cut fertilizer use. And yes, if the Oil Sands were in Quebec, Canada would be out-producing Saudi Arabia.

Vive l'Alberta Libre

VIve le Saskatchewan Libre!

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