S. A. Shelley: This week (June 10 to 12) I attended the Global Energy Show (GES) in Calgary, Alberta, Canada. There are a few things that surprised me about GES. First, that the Canadians have the gall to call it the Global Energy Show.  But then again there were more exhibitors at GES than there were at OTC (Offshore Technology Conference) in Houston last month. Secondly, that there were many Canadian politicians of all ilk speaking at the show: It's been years since any politician of any note gave a keynote speech at OTC. Finally, that it is possible to book a dogsled with Uber in Canada. Though I had a short commute to the show from my place of stay, I did not fancy pushing through the deep snow and was very pleased that Uber Dogsled is available locally.

One of the most pressing energy concerns in Canada relates to pipelines. Canada has huge oil and gas reserves, but because of ideological roadblocks, Canada has struggled to get those resources to deepwater ports. This is no small matter. Were it not for exports of petroleum products, Canada’s trade deficit over the last decade would have been about $1 trillion as opposed to the $170 billion it was ( Fraser Institute: Energy exports continue to fuel the Canadian economy ). Without energy exports, Canada would be much poorer than it already is, and make no mistake about it, Canada is poor (see the many reports at this site Coalition for a Better Future and also some of the "Hot Charts" generated by analysts at the National Bank of Canada Hot Charts - Canada: Consumers have never felt worse )

During the recent federal election in Canada, the eventual winner, Mark Carney, while in the West spoke about the need for new pipelines to boost Canada's economic fortunes.

During a campaign stop in B.C., he said his government would use "emergency powers" to accelerate the building of major projects, including energy infrastructure.

But the next day, in the Eastern part of the country, he said,

"It takes time," he agreed. "We are in a crisis, we must act. We must choose a few projects, a few big projects. Not necessarily pipelines, but maybe pipelines, we’ll see," he added in French.

(Source:  Carney says pipelines 'not necessarily' among major projects to prioritize ) Ergo, the rest of Canada gets only what Quebec allows.

Even though industry believes that Canada can become an energy superpower ( Bloomberg: Canada can become top LNG supplier to Asia )  the pronouncements by federal and most provincial leaders ( Eby rebuffs Ford, says he won't be changing mind on another B.C. pipeline ) outside of Alberta and Saskatchewan are quite antagonistic against pipelines and conventional energy. On May 14 former Trudeau and current Federal Cabinet minister, Stephen Guilbeault, stated that there is no need for new pipelines until Canada maximizes current pipeline use. Guilbeault deliberately misstated pipeline usage for the transmountain pipeline at only 40% whereas countable data has capacity use at close to 75% ( Globalnews.ca: Canada must maximize existing pipeline use before building more ). The problem with Guilbeault's statement is not that it was a deliberate lie, but that most residents in Quebec and Ontario just accept his statement as true. In Canada, the ideologically motivated politicians at all levels flood the social spectrum with deliberate misstatements (misinformation of egregious impact).

It is therefore my assertion that there will be no more new pipelines in Canada, ever. There will be pronouncements about new applications and accelerated reviews, but nothing will come of these.

There is another reason why Canada will not get any new pipelines to capitalize on the continued and growing global demand for oil and especially natural gas.: Competition.

Every major oil producer in the world, from Norway to Iraq is pushing forward with new production development, now. Even the United States is already building a pipeline in Alaska to take natural gas from the arctic slope to a new LNG terminal in the south that will then export LNG to Asia ( Alaska LNG: Pipeline ). While Canada dithers, others act. This is, unfortunately a Canadian characteristic.

Then there is still the problem with one lingering pipeline, Enbridge Line 5, a 72 year old rusting sinew of steel coursing underneath the Great Lakes. As we have discussed before ( OurWorldofEnergy 2022: Continuing the Year of Bad Government Decisions ), Line 5 is an environmental time bomb and does not benefit America in any manner. All claims by Canadian Federal officials about how valuable Line 5 is to America are deliberate misinformation. Most recently, the US Army Corps of Engineers has delayed a report that was to evaluate the structural integrity of Line 5 and the proposed "covering tunnel" to safeguard the environmental integrity going forward ( AP News: Army Corps further delays decision on Great Lakes oil tunnel ). Think about this: American politicians are bending to Canadian pressure to keep a 72 year-old, rusty pipe in operation. As one University of Michigan commentator put it, "…Michigan and the Great Lakes bear most of the risk and get few of the benefits" ( University of Michigan News: Line 5 and its risks: 'The consequences of failure would be catastrophic.'  ).  Where is the White House outrage over this?

Canadian governments dither on all manner of critical matters and blather incessantly about matters that destroy initiative and productivity internally.  From pipelines to municipal water systems (Calgary Herald: How Calgary's catastrophic feeder main failure was decades in making ) Canadian governments act quickly only in the face of disaster or when the self interests of the party members can be enhanced. Votes to increase representative pay and pensions always pass quickly, and highly paid post government consultancies and bureaucratic positions are distributed and awarded without concern for actual capability. At one time, Canada was known for exporting valuable goods and services, but now it excels in exporting ideology of the most malicious kind. In the recent Tariff wars, the U.S. administration was correct in targeting China and Canada: One exports under-priced meagre goods en masse, the other exports thought poison en masse. America needs to be wary of both trading partners.

Shut Down Line 5!

P.S. Just kidding, there is no Uber Dogsled in Canada.