Category Archives: Guest Blog

How good is the OWOE blogging staff?

SA Shelley, WH Luyties: OWOE is a small site, with just a few dedicated and experienced staff who follow energy technologies, economics and policies. Occasionally, OWOE bloggers dare to forecast energy developments that tend to be contrarian, and, much to everyone’s surprise, they have been very good at forecasting trends correctly and ahead of much larger analytical organizations. Are we that good at more quickly analyzing publicly available information along with some insight and soft analysis? Or do we have access to the dark arts such as whiskey and voodoo?

Fig. 1 – whiskey and voodoo

From the early days of OWOE, and especially over the last six months, the prescience and value of OWOE blogs has been proven by the volume of similar analysis and conclusions that have followed after OWOE blogs have been posted. Some examples:

Oil price collapse (due to building supply and slowing demand)

EVs are Evil (through their ability to destroy industries and the jobs that go along with them)

EBuses will have a greater effect on oil demand than EVs

Canada will lose $trillions in oil revenue

Large oil companies to focus on short term production investments

Switch from ICEs to other forms of transport

  • The Humble OWOE Blogger (Libertarian) – Bicycle Commuter Since 2012 (Personally motivated, self-funded, eco-friendly commuting…)
Fig. 2 – OWOE blogger
  • The Honourable Marc Garneau (Liberal) Federal Minister of Transport (Canada), Twitter, April 2019 (Politically motivated, government funded tweet)
Fig. 3 – Federal Minister of Transport

So, how well have we done at OWOE? Very well, indeed!

And how do we consistently do so well?  There are several reasons:

  1. We use publicly available information, including foreign media and analyses, occasionally supplemented with insight gleaned from conversations with industry professionals – but like good journalists, we don’t reveal our sources.
  2. We do not adjust, select or screen data to match our expectations, and we look at trends outside of a given industry to find connections ignored or overlooked by other analysts.
  3. We interpret data through the eyes of experience and expertise without preconceived notions or hidden agendas.
  4. We are contrarians by nature, and we do not believe that the future always looks like the past.
  5. We do not automatically believe government officials as governments by nature are notorious for hiding bad news and over-hyping the smallest bit of positive news.

If we get stuck or our analysis proves inconclusive, then we may call upon the dark arts for assistance. It is surprising how good a shot of whiskey and a chat with a voodoo doll can help; however, it can be dangerous to rely upon such mystic arts lest too much is foreseen.

In the end, it’s all about keeping OWOE readers informed and providing different perspectives.  Please don’t hesitate to request from the OWOE bloggers any particular energy related analysis, discussion or forecast for which you may have a need. OWOE bloggers have yet to charge for anything, not even lunch.

A Tanker War in the Gulf Will Not Help Anyone

Guest blog by S. A. Shelley: In the past few months, a lot of people around the world have probably wondered about why oil prices have again quickly and significantly fallen. I’ve argued in a prior blog at the beginning of this year that the world is awash in oil supply. Even though oil production is collapsing in places like Venezuela, Iran and Mexico, is in danger of collapsing in more places like Angola and Libya, and is politically constrained in places like North Venezuela (Canada), there still is plenty of oil to supply most global markets. The plentiful supply of course comes from surging production in the U.S., ample production in Russia and new offshore fields coming on stream in places like Guyana and Brazil. If you couple increasing supply with softening global demand for oil, you get such downward pressure on oil prices. So what’s with this nonsensical sport of shooting tankers in the Gulf of Oman?

Continue reading A Tanker War in the Gulf Will Not Help Anyone

Canada and Energy: Part 3 – It’s Very Ugly

Guest blog by S. A. Shelley In the first blog of this series, I summarized the huge energy resources of Canada. In the second blog, I showed how most of those resources have been or are being squandered and how governments with good intentions, at times more often than naught, deliver bad outcomes. While statistically bad outcomes can be unintentional, in Canada a lot of bad outcomes are actually the deterministic result of government strategy. Coupled with the breakdown of the rule of law at the highest levels, Canada is in bad shape. That unfortunately is the very big ugly in Canada. Other factors resulting in Canada’s bad energy situation are the focused actions by small groups of well-funded opponents and the apathy by the populace who have been habituated to the sweet lucre of government largesse. Canadians are generally kind and polite people, but at the governing level, the plotting and duplicities surpass a Shakespearean tragedy. The Russians probably learn by watching what happens in Ottawa.

The biggest warning that I have is that the path that Canada is on will more likely lead to Canada becoming the next Venezuela – corrupt, ineffective and when in trouble, doubling down on failed collectivist ideas, instead of returning to integrity, order and prosperity.

Continue reading Canada and Energy: Part 3 – It’s Very Ugly

Recent Interesting and Unusual Energy Stories

Guest blog by Mr. R. U. Cirius: Here are some interesting and somewhat offbeat energy stories that haven’t gotten much media attention during the first three months of the year.

California wind turbines contribute to unprecedented wildflower outbreak

This year California has experienced what many are calling a “superbloom” of wildflowers that hasn’t been seen in decades (Fig. 1). While most attribute this to heavy winter rainfall following several years of drought, Dr. Marko Ramius from the National Wind Energy Laboratory (NWEL) has identified another contributor to the phenomenon – California’s ubiquitous wind turbines. Dr. Ramius has released his surprising findings that show the role of what he calls the “turbulence boundary interface”. This is the boundary of the turbulent mass of air downstream of the turbine’s rotor that generally hovers just off the ground. He has found that this boundary traps moisture close to the earth, which then enhances and prolongs the period of flower bloom. He is currently in discussion with major turbine manufacturers to incorporate blade tip misters into their designs that could provide moisture during drought periods and hopefully make such superblooms a more common occurrence.

Fig. 1 – Wildflowers under wind turbines near Palm Springs, CA

Click here to learn more about wind energy.

Continue reading Recent Interesting and Unusual Energy Stories

Canada and Energy: Part 2 – The Bad

Guest blog by S. A. Shelley In the previous blog about energy in Canada, I presented evidence that Canada has abundance of energy, ranging from hydrocarbon to existing renewable energy supplies. In essence, Canada has similar potential to Norway and even at a larger scale. Norway, like Canada, has been a prolific producer of oil and gas and continues to be so, but Norway is already in a position to be able to transition fully to renewable energy and has undertaken steps in that direction and to curtail fossil fuel consumption (see Independent.co.uk, and Fortune.com).

But where Norway has long term vision and broad social and political consensus, Canada has acrimony, mismanagement and corruption.

Continue reading Canada and Energy: Part 2 – The Bad

Canada and Energy: Part 1 – The Good

Guest blog by S. A. Shelley If there is a poster child in the world for energy wealth, it’s Canada. Folks are dumbfounded by what the Europeans are achieving with renewable energy and decarbonizing, folks quake at the vast untapped oil and gas reserves of Russia, and folks are stunned at how technology and finance combined to bring about the prolific U.S. tight oil and gas production which is upheaving world energy markets. Wow, eh?

Instead, folks should be looking at Canada, that half frozen land of log drivers, curlers and exporter of Hollywood A-listers, and be awestruck by the energy resources that have somehow fallen under the Dominion of Canada.

Continue reading Canada and Energy: Part 1 – The Good

The Great Oil Slump of the 2020s – Part 2b, Demand and Technology

Guest blog by S. A. Shelley In my previous two blogs I have offered views on oil supply and the (macro) social changes that are resulting in a slowdown of growth in oil demand. In this blog, I’ll look at some of the technological (micro) factors that that will contribute further to a drop in demand. This combination of oversupply and drop in demand will have significant and far-reaching impacts on oil companies, petro-nations, and all the companies and people who are a part of the industry.

Continue reading The Great Oil Slump of the 2020s – Part 2b, Demand and Technology

The Great Oil Slump of the 2020s – Part 2a, Demand and Society

Guest blog by S. A. Shelley Surf into any news or finance website and one can find almost everyone commenting about oil demand (see Reuters, OilPrice.com). It can be contradictory and confusing at times, especially when variables are changed and data is parsed in a myriad of ways. I will try to clarify things by separately looking at societal changes (this blog) and then technological changes (next blog). But there is one thing that I have to make clear right away: Oil demand is not going to zero any time soon. The end of the oil age is nigh upon us, but not quite yet, though there are foreboding changes in society (this blog) and technology (next blog) that will affect oil demand in the most unpleasant manner for producers.

Continue reading The Great Oil Slump of the 2020s – Part 2a, Demand and Society

The Great Oil Slump of the 2020s – Part 1, Supply

Guest blog by S. A. Shelley  Many readers are probably wondering what is happening with oil prices, especially with all the efforts by OPEC+ to curtail supply and all the efforts by various trade groups and governments (e.g., Denmark and China) to affect demand. Every year in January, big companies (BP, EXXON) and big organizations (OPEC, EIA, IEA, OECD) release their energy reports. I don’t have quite the scale or resources that they do, but I try my best. Back in 2016, when I wrote about oil demand peak, I included a chart of a possible oil price path for the next few years (Fig. 1). I was under on the demand and supply a bit, and relied upon the 2016 futures prices to guide my price thinking, but I was damn near bang on with the timing of the most recent collapse of oil prices, Q3 of 2018.

Continue reading The Great Oil Slump of the 2020s – Part 1, Supply

California Does Not Need Big, Very Expensive Floating Offshore Wind Farms


Guest blog by S. A. Shelley Californians do not need big and very expensive offshore floating wind farms. In fact, nobody needs big and very expensive offshore floating wind farms. Fixed offshore wind farms started out very expensive, requiring significant government subsidies, but small. They have since matured to allow for big inexpensive offshore wind farms with no government subsidies of any kind. The latest fixed offshore wind farms are producing and supplying electricity to their grids at a cost competitive rate compared to the current supply, and this is a result of technological evolution, improved execution strategies and increasing turbine size (power output). However, floating offshore wind technology is still in the nascent, small and heavily subsidized phase of the technology lifecycle. Yet, for some reason, various consortia are pitching huge floating wind farms right off the bat to California. That’s a big problem and folks in California need to watch that they do not get forced to subsidize those projects.

Continue reading California Does Not Need Big, Very Expensive Floating Offshore Wind Farms