SA Shelley, WH Luyties: OWOE is a small site, with just a few dedicated and experienced staff who follow energy technologies, economics and policies. Occasionally, OWOE bloggers dare to forecast energy developments that tend to be contrarian, and, much to everyone’s surprise, they have been very good at forecasting trends correctly and ahead of much larger analytical organizations. Are we that good at more quickly analyzing publicly available information along with some insight and soft analysis? Or do we have access to the dark arts such as whiskey and voodoo?

From the early days of OWOE, and especially over the last six months, the prescience and value of OWOE blogs has been proven by the volume of similar analysis and conclusions that have followed after OWOE blogs have been posted. Some examples:

Oil price collapse (due to building supply and slowing demand)

• OWOE posted September, 2016: Did the world hit “peak oil” in 2015 and nobody noticed? and January 2019: The great oil slump of the 2020s – Part 1, Supply

• Other media posted June, 2019: Supply Woes Keep Oil Prices Subdued and Fears of $40 oil grow as the world consumes less crude and the supply of it swells

EVs are Evil (through their ability to destroy industries and the jobs that go along with them)

• OWOE posted June, 2018: EVs are evil

• Other media posted July, 2019: The true price of electric cars

EBuses will have a greater effect on oil demand than EVs

• OWOE posted February, 2019: The great oil slump of the 2020s – Part 2b, demand and technology

• Other media posted March, 2019: Forget Tesla, It’s China’s E-Buses That Are Denting Oil Demand

Canada will lose $trillions in oil revenue

• OWOE posted March, 2019: Canada and energy – Part 2, the bad

• Other media posted June, 2019: If Canada fails to cash in on energy wealth in next 10 to 25 years we will lose it

Large oil companies to focus on short term production investments

• OWOE posted February, 2019: The great oil slump of the 2020s – Part 2b, demand and technology

• Other media posted May, 2019: “There has been a broad a shift towards projects with shorter lead times…“

Switch from ICEs to other forms of transport

• The Humble OWOE Blogger (Libertarian) – Bicycle Commuter Since 2012 (Personally motivated, self-funded, eco-friendly commuting…)

• The Honourable Marc Garneau (Liberal) Federal Minister of Transport (Canada), Twitter, April 2019 (Politically motivated, government funded tweet)

So, how well have we done at OWOE? Very well, indeed!

And how do we consistently do so well?  There are several reasons:

1. We use publicly available information, including foreign media and analyses, occasionally supplemented with insight gleaned from conversations with industry professionals – but like good journalists, we don’t reveal our sources.
2. We do not adjust, select or screen data to match our expectations, and we look at trends outside of a given industry to find connections ignored or overlooked by other analysts.
3. We interpret data through the eyes of experience and expertise without preconceived notions or hidden agendas.
4. We are contrarians by nature, and we do not believe that the future always looks like the past.
5. We do not automatically believe government officials as governments by nature are notorious for hiding bad news and over-hyping the smallest bit of positive news.

If we get stuck or our analysis proves inconclusive, then we may call upon the dark arts for assistance. It is surprising how good a shot of whiskey and a chat with a voodoo doll can help; however, it can be dangerous to rely upon such mystic arts lest too much is foreseen.

In the end, it’s all about keeping OWOE readers informed and providing different perspectives.  Please don’t hesitate to request from the OWOE bloggers any particular energy related analysis, discussion or forecast for which you may have a need. OWOE bloggers have yet to charge for anything, not even lunch.